Glossary

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – April 2021

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – April 2021

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – April 2021





Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 220.08 million
Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 11.42 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

ARB will hold its next quarterly auction on May 19th, 2021, with results released May 27th.

In April there were at least four important news items that likely moved the market higher:

  1. The US Department of Justice dropped a lawsuit filed by the previous administration which challenged California’s right to link their program to Quebec’s.  Although the lawsuit had failed in court, an appeal had been pending until this action.
  2. Washington state passed a Cap and Invest bill that appears to be designed to allow possible linkage to the WCI program.
  3. The Biden Administration announced more ambitious targets for US emission reductions, placing its goal at 50-52% below 2005 emissions levels by 2030.
  4. Inflation accelerated in March, with CPI-U increasing 0.6% for the month and 2.6% for the trailing twelve-month period.  Since the CA auction floor price for allowances increases each year by 5% plus CPI-U, this substantial change to inflation implies a higher expected 2022 floor price for allowances.

    Issuances of CCOs by ARB in April were relatively muted, and the ROC backlog awaiting issuance was nearly unchanged.  This impacts available supply of CCOs as we head to the 3-year compliance deadline on November 1st, 2021.

ClimeCo is a respected advisor, transaction facilitator, and trader of environmental commodity market products and related services. We specialize in voluntary carbon, regulated carbon, renewable energy credits, plastics credits, and regional criteria pollutant trading programs.  Complimenting these programs is a team of professionals skilled in providing sustainability program management services, and developing and financing of GHG abatement and mitigation systems.

For more information or to discuss how ClimeCo can drive value for your organization, contact us at 484.415.0501, info@climeco.com, or through our website climeco.com. Be sure to follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter using our handle, @ClimeCo.

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – April 2021

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – March 2021

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – March 2021

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 219.75 million

Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 11.27 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

  • On April 1st, ARB announced a new invalidation investigation against the Dairyland Farm LLC digester project. The investigation involves possible regulatory violations at the project during the period 4/1/2018-3/31/2019 and involves up to 30,811 CCOs. This is the third investigation related to regulatory compliance at a dairy project over the past year.

  • ARB will hold its next quarterly auction on May 19, 2021, with results released May 27th.

ClimeCo is a respected advisor, transaction facilitator, and trader of environmental commodity market products and related services. We specialize in voluntary carbon, regulated carbon, renewable energy credits, plastics credits, and regional criteria pollutant trading programs.  Complimenting these programs is a team of professionals skilled in providing sustainability program management services, and developing and financing of GHG abatement and mitigation systems.

For more information or to discuss how ClimeCo can drive value for your organization, contact us at 484.415.0501, info@climeco.com, or through our website climeco.com. Be sure to follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter using our handle, @ClimeCo.

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – April 2021

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – February 2021

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – February 2021

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 218.44 million

Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 15.61 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

On February 24th, the CA ARB released the results of the first 2021 quarterly auction, held February 17th. The results were perhaps stronger than expected; current vintages sold out, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.24 and a clearing price of $17.80, which is above the floor price of $17.71.

ClimeCo is a respected advisor, transaction facilitator, and trader of environmental commodity market products and related services. We specialize in voluntary carbon, regulated carbon, renewable energy credits, plastics credits, and regional criteria pollutant trading programs.  Complimenting these programs is a team of professionals skilled in providing sustainability program management services, and developing and financing of GHG abatement and mitigation systems.

For more information or to discuss how ClimeCo can drive value for your organization, contact us at 484.415.0501, info@climeco.com, or through our website climeco.com. Be sure to follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter using our handle, @ClimeCo.

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – April 2021

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – January 2021

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – January 2021


Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 215.27 million
Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 15.61 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

    • The CCO-0 quote above now reflects the August settlement date rather than the previously reported December 2021 settlement. We have made this shift because we expect increased interest in CCO-0s in Q1-Q3 as the compliance deadline for CP3 (2018-2020) on November 1st, 2021 nears.
    • We have increased our estimate for the 2022 California auction estimated floor price due to increased inflation expectations for the period November 2020 through October 2021.
    • The next auction will be held on February 17th, with results released on February 24th. This auction will offer 54.77 million allowances, down from the 57.56 million allowances that were offered on average in the 2020 auctions.  Pricing in the futures market currently predicts that the February auction will sell out, but will clear at or near the floor price of $17.71.


ClimeCo
is a respected project developer, advisor, and trader of environmental commodity market products. Specialized expertise in sustainability, regional criteria pollutant trading programs, California cap‐and‐trade, voluntary markets, and project development and financing of internal CO2 abatement systems complement ClimeCo’s diverse commodity portfolio. Within the Climate Action Reserve, ClimeCo is the largest developer of U.S. GHG‐offset projects and producer of U.S. voluntary carbon offsets, managing projects that reduce more than four million tonnes of CO2e per year. For information, contact 484‐415‐0501 or nmarshall@climeco.com.

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – April 2021

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – December 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – December 2020

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 206.64 million

Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 18.32 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

  • 2021 will be an interesting year in the market, as full true-up for the 2018-2020 triennial compliance period is due on November 1st. Entities will be required to surrender all of their required allowances and offsets for their total 2018-2020 emissions at that time.

  • ClimeCo anticipates rising CCO prices in 2021 as entities seek to acquire and surrender their 8% offset limits for the 2018-2020 period. The spread between CCOs and CCAs has remained stubbornly and historically high during 2020, but we expect that demand will increase as entities seek to take advantage of the substantial cost savings represented by surrendering offsets instead of allowances up to their maximum allowable quantity.   


ClimeCo
is a respected project developer, advisor, and trader of environmental commodity market products. Specialized expertise in regional criteria pollutant trading programs, California cap‐and‐trade, voluntary markets, and project development and financing of internal CO2 abatement systems complement ClimeCo’s diverse commodity portfolio. Within the Climate Action Reserve, ClimeCo is the largest developer of U.S. GHG‐offset projects and producer of U.S. voluntary carbon offsets, managing projects that reduce more than four million tonnes of CO2e per year. For information, contact 484‐415‐0501 or nmarshall@climeco.com.

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – April 2021

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – November 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – November 2020

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 206.63 million

Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 17.55 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

  • A quarterly allowance auction was held on November 17, 2020, with results announced November 24th. Both current and future vintage auctions were over-subscribed.  Current vintage allowances cleared at $16.93 versus a floor price of $16.68, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.2.  Future 2023 vintages cleared at $17.35, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.37.  It is unusual to see the future vintages clear at a much higher price than the current vintage, as they cannot be used until 2023, and therefore should carry a lower price than current vintages.
  • ARB has also officially announced the 2021 auction reserve floor price of $17.71. This is the lowest price at which allowances can be purchased at auction at the four quarterly auctions which will occur in 2021. 
  • ClimeCo has begun providing our estimate of the 2022 floor price with an initial value of $18.86. This projection will be updated monthly as inflation data becomes available.


ClimeCo
 is a respected project developer, advisor and trader of environmental commodity market products. Specialized expertise in regional criteria pollutant trading programs, California cap‐and‐trade, voluntary markets and project development and financing of internal CO2 abatement systems complement ClimeCo’s diverse commodity portfolio. Within the Climate Action Reserve, ClimeCo is the largest developer of U.S. GHG‐offset projects and producer of U.S. voluntary carbon offsets, managing projects that reduce more than four million tonnes of CO2e per year. For information, contact 484‐415‐0501 or nmarshall@climeco.com.