Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – April 2021
Offset Supply Information:
All CCOs issued to date: 220.08 million
Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 11.42 million
CA and General Market Commentary:
ARB will hold its next quarterly auction on May 19th, 2021, with results released May 27th.
In April there were at least four important news items that likely moved the market higher:
- The US Department of Justice dropped a lawsuit filed by the previous administration which challenged California’s right to link their program to Quebec’s. Although the lawsuit had failed in court, an appeal had been pending until this action.
- Washington state passed a Cap and Invest bill that appears to be designed to allow possible linkage to the WCI program.
- The Biden Administration announced more ambitious targets for US emission reductions, placing its goal at 50-52% below 2005 emissions levels by 2030.
- Inflation accelerated in March, with CPI-U increasing 0.6% for the month and 2.6% for the trailing twelve-month period. Since the CA auction floor price for allowances increases each year by 5% plus CPI-U, this substantial change to inflation implies a higher expected 2022 floor price for allowances.
Issuances of CCOs by ARB in April were relatively muted, and the ROC backlog awaiting issuance was nearly unchanged. This impacts available supply of CCOs as we head to the 3-year compliance deadline on November 1st, 2021.
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