Glossary

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – December 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – December 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – December 2020

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 206.64 million

Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 18.32 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

  • 2021 will be an interesting year in the market, as full true-up for the 2018-2020 triennial compliance period is due on November 1st. Entities will be required to surrender all of their required allowances and offsets for their total 2018-2020 emissions at that time.

  • ClimeCo anticipates rising CCO prices in 2021 as entities seek to acquire and surrender their 8% offset limits for the 2018-2020 period. The spread between CCOs and CCAs has remained stubbornly and historically high during 2020, but we expect that demand will increase as entities seek to take advantage of the substantial cost savings represented by surrendering offsets instead of allowances up to their maximum allowable quantity.   


ClimeCo is a respected project developer, advisor, and trader of environmental commodity market products. Specialized expertise in regional criteria pollutant trading programs, California cap‐and‐trade, voluntary markets, and project development and financing of internal CO2 abatement systems complement ClimeCo’s diverse commodity portfolio. Within the Climate Action Reserve, ClimeCo is the largest developer of U.S. GHG‐offset projects and producer of U.S. voluntary carbon offsets, managing projects that reduce more than four million tonnes of CO2e per year. For information, contact 484‐415‐0501 or nmarshall@climeco.com.

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – December 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – November 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – November 2020

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 206.63 million

Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 17.55 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

  • A quarterly allowance auction was held on November 17, 2020, with results announced November 24th. Both current and future vintage auctions were over-subscribed.  Current vintage allowances cleared at $16.93 versus a floor price of $16.68, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.2.  Future 2023 vintages cleared at $17.35, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.37.  It is unusual to see the future vintages clear at a much higher price than the current vintage, as they cannot be used until 2023, and therefore should carry a lower price than current vintages.
  • ARB has also officially announced the 2021 auction reserve floor price of $17.71. This is the lowest price at which allowances can be purchased at auction at the four quarterly auctions which will occur in 2021. 
  • ClimeCo has begun providing our estimate of the 2022 floor price with an initial value of $18.86. This projection will be updated monthly as inflation data becomes available.


ClimeCo is a respected project developer, advisor and trader of environmental commodity market products. Specialized expertise in regional criteria pollutant trading programs, California cap‐and‐trade, voluntary markets and project development and financing of internal CO2 abatement systems complement ClimeCo’s diverse commodity portfolio. Within the Climate Action Reserve, ClimeCo is the largest developer of U.S. GHG‐offset projects and producer of U.S. voluntary carbon offsets, managing projects that reduce more than four million tonnes of CO2e per year. For information, contact 484‐415‐0501 or nmarshall@climeco.com.

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – December 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – October 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – October 2020

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 205.31 million

Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 17.55 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

The multi-month trend of allowances moving higher and CCO prices moving lower continued in October. The spread between Allowances and CCOs continues to widen to record historical levels.  Because 2020 is not a triennial compliance true-up year, we believe the lack of interest in CCOs is because compliance entities do not need to purchase CCOs for compliance until 2021, and many entities may be waiting until closer to the true-up deadline in order to observe the uncertain economy and better understand their emissions for 2020.

The ROC backlog dropped by approximately 6 million CCOs in October as ARB issuances of credits were much higher than average.

The next quarterly allowance auction will be held on November 17th, 2020, with results to be announced November 24th. While the previous auction did not clear and allowances were sold at the floor price of $16.68, we expect the last auction of the year to clear, as typical, and the clearing price to trend higher as participants begin to anticipate the higher 2021 floor price.  ClimeCo estimates the clearing price for 2021 at $17.73, based on estimates of inflation for the 12 months ending October 31st, 2020.


ClimeCo is a respected project developer, advisor and trader of environmental commodity market products. Specialized expertise in regional criteria pollutant trading programs, California cap‐and‐trade, voluntary markets and project development and financing of internal CO2 abatement systems complement ClimeCo’s diverse commodity portfolio. Within the Climate Action Reserve, ClimeCo is the largest developer of U.S. GHG‐offset projects and producer of U.S. voluntary carbon offsets, managing projects that reduce more than four million tonnes of CO2e per year. For information, contact 484‐415‐0501 or nmarshall@climeco.com.

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – December 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – September 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – September 2020

CA and General Market Commentary:

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 201.97 million
Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 23.29 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

The trend of allowances moving higher and CCO prices moving lower continued in September. The spread between Allowances and CCOs continues to widen to record historical levels.  Because 2020 is not a triennial compliance true-up year, we believe the lack of interest in CCOs is because compliance entities do not need to purchase CCOs for compliance until 2021, and many entities may be waiting until closer to the true-up deadline in order to observe the uncertain economy and better understand their emissions for 2020.


ClimeCo is a respected project developer, advisor and trader of environmental commodity market products. Specialized expertise in regional criteria pollutant trading programs, California cap‐and‐trade, voluntary markets and project development and financing of internal CO2 abatement systems complement ClimeCo’s diverse commodity portfolio. Within the Climate Action Reserve, ClimeCo is the largest developer of U.S. GHG‐offset projects and producer of U.S. voluntary carbon offsets, managing projects that reduce more than four million tonnes of CO2e per year. For information, contact 484‐415‐0501 or nmarshall@climeco.com.

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – December 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – August 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – August 2020

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 190.88 million

Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 21.96 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

  • ARB’s August auction saw a $16.68 clearing price for its current vintages, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 0.89. The advance vintage auction cleared at $16.73 with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.29.  This is an unusual result, typically entities would expect to receive a discount for purchasing future years’ allowances that cannot be used for 3 years.  It was also interesting to see that while only 3.5% of current vintage allowances were purchased by speculators, 19.9% of future vintage allowances were purchased by speculators.
  • Allowances continued to inch higher in August, while CCO prices inched lower. The spread between Allowance and CCO is historically high.  Because 2020 is not triennial compliance true-up year, we believe the lack of interest in CCOs is because compliance entities do not need to purchase CCOs for compliance until 2021, and many entities may be waiting until closer to the true-up deadline in order to observe the uncertain economy and better understand their emissions for 2020.

ClimeCo LLC is a respected project developer, advisor and trader of environmental commodity market products. Specialized expertise in regional criteria pollutant trading programs, California cap‐and‐trade, voluntary markets and project development and financing of internal CO2 abatement systems complement ClimeCo’s diverse commodity portfolio. Within the Climate Action Reserve, ClimeCo is the largest developer of U.S. GHG‐offset projects and producer of U.S. voluntary carbon offsets, managing projects that reduce more than four million tonnes of CO2e per year. For information, contact 484‐415‐0501 or nmarshall@climeco.com.

Sources

The definitions in this glossary have been reprinted or adapted from the EPA Climate Change Glossary and the Climate Action Reserve Dictionary.

 

Additional Resources

Energy Information Administration’s Energy Glossary

EPA Overview of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

FEMA Extreme Heat Glossary

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

National Weather Service Glossary

NASA’s Earth Observatory Library

UNFCCC glossaries