Glossary

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – November 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – November 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – November 2020

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 206.63 million

Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 17.55 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

  • A quarterly allowance auction was held on November 17, 2020, with results announced November 24th. Both current and future vintage auctions were over-subscribed.  Current vintage allowances cleared at $16.93 versus a floor price of $16.68, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.2.  Future 2023 vintages cleared at $17.35, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.37.  It is unusual to see the future vintages clear at a much higher price than the current vintage, as they cannot be used until 2023, and therefore should carry a lower price than current vintages.
  • ARB has also officially announced the 2021 auction reserve floor price of $17.71. This is the lowest price at which allowances can be purchased at auction at the four quarterly auctions which will occur in 2021. 
  • ClimeCo has begun providing our estimate of the 2022 floor price with an initial value of $18.86. This projection will be updated monthly as inflation data becomes available.


ClimeCo
 is a respected project developer, advisor and trader of environmental commodity market products. Specialized expertise in regional criteria pollutant trading programs, California cap‐and‐trade, voluntary markets and project development and financing of internal CO2 abatement systems complement ClimeCo’s diverse commodity portfolio. Within the Climate Action Reserve, ClimeCo is the largest developer of U.S. GHG‐offset projects and producer of U.S. voluntary carbon offsets, managing projects that reduce more than four million tonnes of CO2e per year. For information, contact 484‐415‐0501 or nmarshall@climeco.com.

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – November 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – October 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – October 2020

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 205.31 million

Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 17.55 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

The multi-month trend of allowances moving higher and CCO prices moving lower continued in October. The spread between Allowances and CCOs continues to widen to record historical levels.  Because 2020 is not a triennial compliance true-up year, we believe the lack of interest in CCOs is because compliance entities do not need to purchase CCOs for compliance until 2021, and many entities may be waiting until closer to the true-up deadline in order to observe the uncertain economy and better understand their emissions for 2020.

The ROC backlog dropped by approximately 6 million CCOs in October as ARB issuances of credits were much higher than average.

The next quarterly allowance auction will be held on November 17th, 2020, with results to be announced November 24th. While the previous auction did not clear and allowances were sold at the floor price of $16.68, we expect the last auction of the year to clear, as typical, and the clearing price to trend higher as participants begin to anticipate the higher 2021 floor price.  ClimeCo estimates the clearing price for 2021 at $17.73, based on estimates of inflation for the 12 months ending October 31st, 2020.


ClimeCo
 is a respected project developer, advisor and trader of environmental commodity market products. Specialized expertise in regional criteria pollutant trading programs, California cap‐and‐trade, voluntary markets and project development and financing of internal CO2 abatement systems complement ClimeCo’s diverse commodity portfolio. Within the Climate Action Reserve, ClimeCo is the largest developer of U.S. GHG‐offset projects and producer of U.S. voluntary carbon offsets, managing projects that reduce more than four million tonnes of CO2e per year. For information, contact 484‐415‐0501 or nmarshall@climeco.com.

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – November 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – September 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – September 2020

CA and General Market Commentary:

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 201.97 million
Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 23.29 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

The trend of allowances moving higher and CCO prices moving lower continued in September. The spread between Allowances and CCOs continues to widen to record historical levels.  Because 2020 is not a triennial compliance true-up year, we believe the lack of interest in CCOs is because compliance entities do not need to purchase CCOs for compliance until 2021, and many entities may be waiting until closer to the true-up deadline in order to observe the uncertain economy and better understand their emissions for 2020.


ClimeCo
 is a respected project developer, advisor and trader of environmental commodity market products. Specialized expertise in regional criteria pollutant trading programs, California cap‐and‐trade, voluntary markets and project development and financing of internal CO2 abatement systems complement ClimeCo’s diverse commodity portfolio. Within the Climate Action Reserve, ClimeCo is the largest developer of U.S. GHG‐offset projects and producer of U.S. voluntary carbon offsets, managing projects that reduce more than four million tonnes of CO2e per year. For information, contact 484‐415‐0501 or nmarshall@climeco.com.

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – November 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – August 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – August 2020

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 190.88 million

Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 21.96 million

CA and General Market Commentary:

  • ARB’s August auction saw a $16.68 clearing price for its current vintages, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 0.89. The advance vintage auction cleared at $16.73 with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.29.  This is an unusual result, typically entities would expect to receive a discount for purchasing future years’ allowances that cannot be used for 3 years.  It was also interesting to see that while only 3.5% of current vintage allowances were purchased by speculators, 19.9% of future vintage allowances were purchased by speculators.
  • Allowances continued to inch higher in August, while CCO prices inched lower. The spread between Allowance and CCO is historically high.  Because 2020 is not triennial compliance true-up year, we believe the lack of interest in CCOs is because compliance entities do not need to purchase CCOs for compliance until 2021, and many entities may be waiting until closer to the true-up deadline in order to observe the uncertain economy and better understand their emissions for 2020.

ClimeCo LLC is a respected project developer, advisor and trader of environmental commodity market products. Specialized expertise in regional criteria pollutant trading programs, California cap‐and‐trade, voluntary markets and project development and financing of internal CO2 abatement systems complement ClimeCo’s diverse commodity portfolio. Within the Climate Action Reserve, ClimeCo is the largest developer of U.S. GHG‐offset projects and producer of U.S. voluntary carbon offsets, managing projects that reduce more than four million tonnes of CO2e per year. For information, contact 484‐415‐0501 or nmarshall@climeco.com.

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – July 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – July 2020

Offset Pricing Monthly Market Digest – July 2020

Offset Supply Information:

All CCOs issued to date: 190.98 million
Compliance credits awaiting issuance: 23.12 million

 

CA and General Market Commentary:

  • ARB’s next auction will be in August. With futures for August delivery trading at $16.83, $0.15 above the $16.68 auction floor price, it appears likely that the auction will see a substantially higher bid-to-cover ratio than the .37 seen at the May auction.  It may even be fully subscribed (a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.00 or higher), but a clearing price materially higher than the minimum $16.68 floor seems unlikely given lower emissions in 2020 during the pandemic and given the large number of allowances that traded at a discount below the floor price on the futures exchange during the March-May period.
  • ARB has begun marking CCOs as “DEBs” or non-DEBs in their tracking software and reports. This allows buyers to know whether the credits they are buying have been determined to meet the requirements.  Offset projects that are located in California will automatically be marked as “DEBs”, while other projects can petition to have a determination made if the developer believes they should qualify.
  • Due to ARB beginning to mark credits as “DEBs”, we would expect that the market will begin to differentiate between the two categories, and we will begin adding prices for both categories to this report if/when the market begins to price them differently.

ClimeCo LLC  is a respected project developer, advisor and trader of environmental commodity market products. Specialized expertise in regional criteria pollutant trading programs, California cap‐and‐trade, voluntary markets and project development and financing of internal CO2 abatement systems complement ClimeCo’s diverse commodity portfolio. Within the Climate Action Reserve, ClimeCo is the largest developer of U.S. GHG‐offset projects and producer of U.S. voluntary carbon offsets, managing projects that reduce more than four million tonnes of CO2e per year. For information, contact 484‐415‐0501 or nmarshall@climeco.com.